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一、加入WTO对中国及其区域经济的影响 李善同 翟凡 刘云中1

1.Introduction1

Ⅰ WTO Membership and Implications for China and Its Regional Economics LiShantong,Zhai Fan and Liu Yunzhong1

（一）引言1

（二）中国的市场准入承诺2

2.Market Openness Commitment of China2

1．工业品关税减让和非关税措施削减3

2.1 Tariff and Non Tariff Reductions for Industrial Products3

2．农产品关税及非关税措施4

2.2 Tariff and Non Tariff Reductions for Agriculture Products4

2.3 Openness of Trade in Services6

3．服务贸易开放6

3. Research Methods9

（三）研究方法9

4. Economic Structure and Market Openness in China and Guangdong Province10

（四）中国以及广东省的经济结构和市场开放10

5.Base Case Projections and Simulations Design16

（五）基准情形和模拟方案设计16

1．对中国经济的影响18

6.Major Simulation Results18

6.1 Aggregate Effects for Chinese Economy18

（六）加入WTO的影响分析（主要模拟结果）18

6.2 Impacts for Guangdong Province22

2．对广东经济的影响22

（七）主要结论和政策建议27

7.Main Conclusions and Policy Implications27

Appendix:The Structure of China s CGE Model33

附录：中国CGE模型结构33

Ⅱ The Impact of China s Trade Liberalization for WTO Accession:A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Fan Mingtai,Zheng Yuxin40

二、贸易自由化对中国经济影响的一般均衡分析 樊明太 郑玉歆40

1.Implications of Trade Liberalization41

（一）贸易自由化的含义及设定41

1.1 Tariff Reduction Projections in 1996 and 1997 in China42

1．中国1996年和1997年的关税削减方案42

2．APEC贸易自由化45

1.2 Trade Liberalization in APEC regions45

2.The PRCGEM Model,Base Year Data and Short Term Closure46

（二）PRCGEM模型的基本结构、基准数据及短期闭合46

1．PRCGEM模型的基本结构46

2.1 The PRCGEM Model46

3．贸易自由化模拟的闭合47

2.3 Macroeconomic Closure47

3.Simulation Results and Analysis of Trade Liberalization47

2.2 Base Year Data47

2．PRCGEM模型的基准数据47

（三）贸易自由化影响的模拟结果及分析47

3.1 Macro Results48

1．宏观结果48

3.2 Sectoral Results51

2．部门结果51

3．地区结果58

3.3 Regional Results58

4. Conclusion Remarks61

（四）结论及政策含义61

三、加入WTO对中国产业影响的CGE模型分析 李雪松 阿杨·雷炯64

（一）引言64

Ⅲ The Sectoral Impact of China s Access to the WTO:A Dynamic CGE Analysis Li Xuesong,Arjan Lejour64

1.Introduction64

（二）中国的贸易自由化65

2.Trade Liberalization in China(1992～1997)65

1．关税减让66

2.1 Tariff Reductions66

2．非关税减让69

2.2 Non-Tariff Reductions69

3．关税减免率70

2.3 Estimates of Tariff Exemption Rates70

2.4 Sector Tariff Rates, Exemption Rates,and Non-tariff Equivalents71

4．部门关税税率、关税减免率以及非关税当量税率71

3.Model Description72

（三）模型介绍72

（四）模拟方案设计及基态方案预测76

4.Scenarios Design and Baseline Results76

（五）模拟结果及敏感性分析78

5.Simulation Results of Trade Liberalization(1997～2010)and Sensitivity analysis78

（六）加入WTO的影响与对策88

6.Impact and Countermeasures88

（七）加入WTO后中国外经贸政策所要进行的调整90

7.Policies Adjustment after WTO90

（一）引言95

Ⅳ China and the WTO:The Impact on China and the World Economy Arjan Lejour95

1.Introduction95

四、加入WTO对中国及世界经济的影响 阿杨·雷炯95

2. Trade Liberalization in China(1992～1997)98

（二）中国的贸易自由化（1992～1997年）98

3.Trade and Tariffs101

（三）贸易与关税101

4.The Model and the Baseline105

（四）模型与基态方案105

5.Impact of Trade Liberalization in China107

（五）模拟方案影响分析107

5.1 GDP Effects108

1．对国内生产总值的影响108

2．对部门进出口及产出的影响109

5.2 Sectoral Trade and Production109

5.3 Sectoral Effects for the Trading Partners113

3．对中国贸易伙伴部门的影响113

6.Conclusions116

（六）结论116

Appendix:Regional and Sectoral Concordances for WorldScan119

1.8 Regions in the Model119

2.21 Sectors in the Model119

2．模型中的21个部门119

1．模型中的8个区域119

附录：WorldScan模型中的区域和部门划分119

3.Data and Substitution Elasticity120

3．数据与替代弹性120

五、“入世”对我国主要产业的影响及对策 郑秉文122

Ⅴ Impacts of China s Entry into WTO on Its Main Sectors Zheng Bingwen122

1.Agriculture123

（一）农业123

2.Textile Industry126

（二）纺织工业126

3.Irons and Steel Industry128

（三）钢铁工业128

4.Petroleum and Petrol-chemical Industry129

（四）石油石化工业129

5.Machinery Industry130

（五）机械工业130

（六）汽车工业132

6.Automobile Industry132

7.Information Technology (IT)Industry135

（七）信息技术产业135

（八）电信服务业136

8.Telecommunications Service Industry136

（九）金融业139

9.Finance and Insurance Service Sector139

Ⅵ Industrial Strategy to Use FDI for China after the WTO Song Hong,Chai Yu141

六、加入WTO后我国利用外资的产业战略 宋泓 柴瑜141

1.Transnational Corporations,FDI and Industrial Growth in Developing Countries142

1．产业成长的一般过程142

（一）跨国公司及其外国直接投资活动与发展中国家的产业成长142

1.1 General Process of Industrial Growth142

2．跨国公司影响下发展中国家产业成长的不同模式144

1.2 Different Patterns of Industrial Growth in Developing Countries with impact of Transnational Corporations144

1.3 Results of Industrial Growth under Different Patterns144

3．不同模式下产业成长的效果144

1.4 Role of Transnational Corporations and Local Firms in the Process of Industrial Growth in Developing Countries148

4．发展中国家产业成长过程中跨国公司和当地企业的作用148

5．跨国公司与发展中国家的发展战略选择150

（二）外商直接投资对我国产业的介入程度150

2.The Insertion Ratio of Transnational Corporations in China s Industry150

1.5 Transnational Corporations and the Choice of Development Strategy in Developing Countries150

3.1 Effects to the Four Latest-Opened Investment Fields158

3.Effects of FDI Interpose China s Industrial Development158

（三）加入WTO对外商投资介入我国产业发展的影响158

1．对新开放的4个投资领域的影响158

3.2 China s Commitment Deepen Its Market Openness160

2．承诺加深了我国对外开放的程度160

3.3 China s Commitment Improve Management Environment of FDI Much for Transnational Corporations164

3．我国入世的承诺将大大改善跨国公司及其直接投资在我国的经营环境164

1．外资流入会有较大幅度的增加166

4.Trends Analysis of FDI After the WTO166

4.2 The Structure of FDI Inflow Will Be Adjusted166

4.1 The Total FDI Will Increase in a Big Degree166

（四）加入WTO后外资流入的趋势分析166

2．已经进入的外商投资企业及相应的外国直接投资要做比较大的调整166

4.4 The Ratio to Western Part of China Will Increase168

4.3 The Structure of FDI Stock in China Will Be Adjusted168

3．外国直接投资存量的结构也要发生比较大的变化168

4．流入中西部的外资比重将有所上升168

1．加入WTO后我国优势产业成长所面临的机遇与挑战169

5.1 The Opportunities and Challenges for Advantage Industries Growth After the WTO169

5.Challenges of China s Industrial Growth After the WTO169

（五）加入WTO后我国产业成长所面临的挑战169

2．加入WTO后我国劣势产业成长所面临的挑战170

5.2 The Challenges for Disadvantage Industries Growth After the WTO170

3．跨国公司与我国经济发展模式的转型175

（六）加入WTO后我国引进外资的总体战略和产业战略175

1．改革开放20年来我国引进外商直接投资战略所经历的两大阶段175

6.1 Two Phases of China s FDI Development in the Past 20 Years175

6.Overall Strategy and Industrial Strategy for China to Absorb FDI175

5.3 Transnational Corporations and Transition of China s Economy175

2．加入WTO后我国引进外资的总体战略和产业战略177

6.2 Overall Strategy and Industrial Strategy for China to Absorb FDI after the WTO177

1．加入WTO后我国产业成长和结构调整所面临的挑战178

（七）加入WTO后我国引进外资产业战略的调整178

7.The Adjustment of FDI Strategy after the WTO178

7.1 Challenges of Industrial Growth and Structure Adjustment after the WTO178

7.2 Role of the Government179

2．国家和政府的作用179

7.3 Suggestions to Improve the Industrial Policy of FDI181

3．改进外资产业政策的建议181

Ⅶ Prospect of Industrial Policy Regime after the WTO Lu Ding187

1.Contents of Industrial Policy187

（一）产业政策的内容187

七、加入WTO后中国的产业政策展望 陆丁187

（二）具有中国特色的产业政策工具191

2.Instruments of Industrial Policy191

（三）产业政策对资源配置的导向194

3.Incentive Implications of Industrial Policy194

3.1 Effective Sales-related Tax Rates195

1．销售税费的实际负担率195

3.2 Effective Trade Protection197

2．产业保护指数197

3.3 Investment and Trade Structures199

3．对于投资和贸易结构的影响199

4.Prospects after WTO201

（四）加入世界贸易组织以后的产业政策201

Ⅷ China s WTO Entry and Reform of SOEs Mai Yinhua204

八、加入WTO与国有企业改革 ？华204

1.SOEs in the manufacturing industries205

（一）制造业中的国有企业205

（二）服务业中的国有企业210

2.SOEs in the services industries210

1．制造业中的国外竞争212

（三）加入WTO意味着更加激烈的市场竞争212

3.1 Foreign competition in manufacturing industries212

3.WTO means hotter market competition212

3.2 Foreign competition in services industries213

2．服务业中的国外竞争213

3.3 Competition from non-state enterprises214

3．来自于非国有企业的竞争214

4.WTO and the reform of SOEs and SOBs215

（四）加入WTO与国有企业及国有银行的改革215

5.Concluding comments218

（五）结论性评述218

Ⅸ Protection Data for China:An Overview Nico Van Leeuwen222

1.Introduction222

（一）引言222

九、中国的贸易保护数据分析 尼可·鸿·利文222

2.Effective Protection Analysis223

2.1 The Effective Protection Concept223

1．有效保护的概念223

（二）有效保护分析223

2.2 Measurement Problems on Effective Protection Analysis224

2．有效保护分析中的计算问题224

3.Data of Tariffs for China227

3.1 Effective Rates of Protection in China227

1．中国的有效保护率227

（三）中国的关税数据227

3.2 Effective Imports Tariffs in 1997 using Input-Output Coefficients229

2．用投入产出系数计算的1997年的有效进口关税229

3.3 Data Sources of Tariffs231

3．关税数据的来源231

3.4 The Differences between the Ex-ante and Ex-post Tariffs232

4．事前和事后税率的差异232

3.5 Tariff Revenuses and Exemptions233

5．关税收入和免税233

3.6 A Link to Differences in the Levels of Imports234

6．各种进口数据间的联系234

4.Conclusions236

（四）结论236